In the Bureau of Meteorology's latest Spring (September to November) outlook rainfall is likely to be above median for the eastern two-thirds of Australia.
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However, below median rainfall is likely for western parts of WA and western Tasmania.
The negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event continues. A negative IOD increases the chances of above average winter-spring rainfall for much of southern and eastern Australia.
The most recent weekly IOD index value is 0.37 °C, with easterly winds across the tropical eastern Indian Ocean over the past week acting to ease the negative IOD values somewhat. However, this is likely to be only temporary, with most climate models surveyed by the Bureau predicting negative IOD conditions are likely to persist during spring.
Maximum temperatures for September to November are likely to be above median for the northern tropics and far southeast Australia. Below median daytime temperatures are more likely for parts of eastern and central Australia.
Above median minimum temperatures for September to November are very likely for all of Australia.
The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral with most oceanic and atmospheric indicators within the neutral range. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), which recently had moderately strong La Nina like values, has returned to neutral values, with the 30-day value to 15 August at +6.3. Most climate model outlooks indicate the central tropical Pacific is likely to cool over the coming months, but remain ENSO-neutral.
