February to April rainfall is likely to be above median for much of northern and inland southern Queensland, eastern NSW, eastern Victoria, eastern Tasmania and small scattered parts of the Top End of the NT and south-west WA (chance of exceeding median is greater than 60%).
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That is the latest prediction from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) and with areas like Dorrigo having already received 230mm so far this month it looks like La Nina has well and truly established. Along the coast January has produced some decent falls with many areas having received in excess of 100mm .
There is an increased chance of unusually high rainfall (in the top 20% of historical records) for February to April in much of northern Queensland and coastal NSW extending into Victoria and south-east Tasmania (1.5 to 2.5 times the usual chance). In any given outlook period, the chance of unusually high or low rainfall is around 20%. This means that a 40% chance of unusually wet conditions is twice the normal likelihood, while 60% is three times.
