As the second anniversary of Russia's invasion nears, war-weary Ukraine is beset by shortages in soldiers and ammunition, as well as doubts about the supply of Western aid.
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The Ukrainian military is dug in, outgunned and outnumbered against a more powerful opponent.
As the war enters its third year, questions are being asked about Ukraine's ability to sustain the fight.
WHAT IS THE STATE OF PLAY?
Triumphs have turned to attrition for Ukraine along the snaking front line in the country's east. With Russia gaining advantages, shortages mounting and a major military shake-up still fresh, questions abound about whether Kyiv can keep going.
"As things stand, neither side has won. Neither side has lost. Neither side is anywhere near giving up. And both sides have pretty much exhausted the manpower and equipment that they started the war with," said General Richard Barrons, a British military officer who is co-chair of a defence consultancy.
Ukraine's much-anticipated summer counteroffensive failed to produce any breakthroughs. The armed forces switched to a defensive posture in the autumn to repel new advances from Moscow.
On February 17, Russian forces took control of the embattled city of Avdiivka, where Kyiv's troops were under constant fire with Russians approaching from three directions. It was the biggest battlefield victory for Russia since the fight for Bakhmut, and it confirmed that Moscow's offensive was gaining steam.
Ukraine has proven successful in the Black Sea, where it's used long-range weapons to strike military installations in Crimea and maritime drones to sink Russian warships. Ukraine has disabled a third of the Black Sea Fleet, according to the Atlantic Council.
HOW MANY PEOPLE HAVE BEEN KILLED?
Both Russia and Ukraine have sought to keep casualty figures under wraps.
Few details about Ukrainian military deaths have emerged since the full-scale invasion began in 2022. But it's clear that tens of thousands of Ukrainian civilians have been killed.
In 2023, the first independent statistical analysis of Russia's war dead concluded that nearly 50,000 Russian men had died in the war.
WHAT HAPPENS IF UKRAINE CAN'T FIND MORE TROOPS?
Without more soldiers, Ukraine's defensive lines will be overstretched and more vulnerable to Russian attack, especially if Moscow launches intense multi-pronged assaults along the 1,000-kilometre front line.
The Ukrainian military has an average personnel shortage of 25 per cent across brigades, according to lawmakers. Military commanders are unable to give their soldiers enough rest, and Russia has recently increased the tempo of attacks.
Ukraine's military command has said 450,000 to 500,000 additional recruits are needed for the next phase of the war. Even then, they would not be able to match the manpower of Russia, which has more than three times Ukraine's population.
Politicians have spent months mulling over a controversial proposal to increase the conscription pool, as many Ukrainian men continue to evade the war in Ukrainian cities.
WHAT ABOUT WEAPONS AND AMMUNITION?
Military leaders appear to be rationing shells, sending trickles of ammunition to firing positions to preserve stockpiles, while promises of more ammunition from Western allies have gone unfulfilled. The European Union failed on its promise to deliver 1 million rounds by the start of the year, delivering only a few hundred thousand.
At the same time, Russia is mobilising its defence industry and may soon be able to fire 5,000 artillery rounds a day, Barrons said.
Military commanders have complained for months of ammunition shortages for infantry fighting vehicles, machine guns, artillery and multiple rocket launch systems. At the end of 2023, some artillery commanders said they could meet only 10 per cent of ammunition needs.
Commanders say long-range artillery in particular acts as a protective umbrella to cover infantry, allowing them to hold territory and prepare for offensive operations. Without it, Ukraine will increasingly come under the pressure of Russia's relentless artillery barrages.
IS WESTERN SUPPORT WANING, AND WHAT IF IT DOES?
Ukraine is reliant on Western allies and international organisations not just for military aid but also for financial support and humanitarian help.
Without Western assistance, Ukraine will not have the weapons, ammunition and training it needs to sustain the war effort, nor will it be able to keep its battered economy afloat or reach Ukrainians trapped in the crossfire of battles.
Kyiv breathed a sigh of relief in February when the EU approved extending a $US54 billion ($A82 billion) aid package for Ukraine after resistance from Hungary. That money is meant to support the economy and rebuild the country, not to fight Russia.
But it's $US60 billion ($A92 billion) in US funding that Ukraine's leaders are waiting for. The funds will enable Ukraine to purchase weapons and equipment from American firms, access more military training and intelligence sharing, and bolster air and sea defences. The money will also provide direct budget support for Kyiv.
On the humanitarian side, the United Nations and its partner agencies said if an appeal for $3.1 billion in new funding for the year is not fulfilled, the UN won't be able to meet the basic needs of 8.5 million Ukrainians living on the front line.
Australian Associated Press
