A CRITICAL shortage of GPs could soon leave some Hunter towns, including Singleton, "up the creek" without a doctor.
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National modelling predicts there will be a shortfall of almost 11,500 GPs by 2032, but parts of the Hunter are already struggling - with Singleton , Cessnock, Murrurundi, Scone, Denman, Merriwa and Muswellbrook identified as being particularly vulnerable.
Most of the 404 practices in the Hunter and Central Coast are actively recruiting doctors already, as they grapple with an increasing workload, a retiring workforce, and fewer medical graduates pursuing a career in general practice. The Hunter New England and Central Coast area has lost close to 100 GPs in the past few years. Unless the trajectory changes - and soon - the region's Primary Health Network (PHN) says it will only get harder and more expensive to see a GP.
"Over time, it will reduce access for regular people in the community to see their local doctors," PHN chief executive Richard Nankervis said.
"There will be an impact in terms of increases in waiting times, but also cost, and that's a general trend that we're already starting to see across various parts of the region."
The most recent data the PHN could provide from 2020 shows one full time equivalent GP for every 1224 residents across the region.
But in areas like Dungog, that ratio jumped to more than 2900 people for every one doctor.
Mr Nankervis said there were about 1890 GPs in the region in 2018. It is now closer to 1800, and 239 of those are registrars.
Singleton, Cessnock, Murrurundi, Scone, Denman, Merriwa and Muswellbrook are among the Hunter areas the PHN has identified as being at risk of current or imminent closures. But areas of high population growth - like Maitland and the Central Coast - are also under increasing pressure to meet the growing demand.
"It seems to be as bad as we have seen since the PHN began in 2015," he said. "We are worried about a whole range of towns, but we have probably got about 10 towns that are of greatest concern after a couple of years of population growth."
It comes as a Deloitte report forecasts demand for GP services will increase by almost 40 per cent by 2030. But if the number of new GPs entering the market do not keep pace with the growing demand, there will be a shortfall of 9,298 full-time GPs - the equivalent of 25 per cent of the GP workforce - within eight years. Since 2017, there has been a 30 per cent drop in medical graduates applying to do general practice.
"We are seeing a significant reduction in the number of medical students choosing general practice, and it is largely because more are choosing specialities, which are attractive because they are remunerated well, and often offer very good lifestyles for them and their families," Mr Nankervis said.
The region's practices say a "melting pot" of challenges, setbacks, and cuts have contributed to this "crisis" and that there needs to be "carrots and sticks" to encourage more GPs to the industry - particularly in regional and rural areas.
Carrots and sticks
The Hunter New England Central Coast Primary Health Network recently offered bush GP and registrar grants in a bid to help rural areas recruit doctors. It covered recruitment costs to entice GPs to practices in Quirindi, Narrabri, Taree, Wee Waa, Glen Innes and Tamworth, and registrars to Moree, Gunnedah and Inverell. Dr Simon Holliday, a GP and addiction physician in Taree, said these grants were "good" and helpful - but were only one piece of the puzzle.
"There's an enormous amount of costs involved in recruiting and in relocating doctors to rural areas," he said. It could take years for the "small handful" of overseas-based doctors interested in working in rural areas to go through Australia's approval process. Competition was fierce for international medical graduates too, who need support to get settled, that it was not always financially viable or a long-term solution.
"I think we do have to ask ourselves as a nation, as a health system - why is it that we're relying on medical conscription of international medical graduates to supply health care in the bush?" Dr Holliday said.